Cittadellavs
Albinoleffe
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie C - Girone A · 10/3/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cittadella · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cittadella 1-0 Albinoleffe, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cittadella 1-2 Albinoleffe
Original prediction
Cittadella
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.62 | 56.3% | 46.6% | -9.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 25.0% | 28.5% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 4.87 | 18.7% | 24.9% | 6.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.7 pts
Projected Score
Cittadella 1–0 Albinoleffe
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Cittadella
Probability
46.6%
Model confidence
46.6%
Cittadella has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CittadellaWWWWW
GF 10 · GA 2 · avg 2.00/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
AlbinoleffeDWLDL
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
CittadellaAlbinoleffe
50.0Attack16.7
83.3Defence83.3
100.0Form33.3
83.3Power48.3
1.26xG0.77