Cittadella Vis Modenavs
Pistoiese
COMPLETEDItaly · Serie D - Girone D · 10/25/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pistoiese · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cittadella Vis Modena 2-1 Pistoiese
Original prediction
Pistoiese
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 24 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.55 | 19.5% | 33.6% | 14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.25 | 27.4% | 28.3% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.68 | 53.1% | 38.1% | -15.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–09%
Predicted outcome
Pistoiese
Probability
38.1%
Model confidence
38.1%
Pistoiese has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 3 · avg 0.60/0.60
GF 8 · GA 1 · avg 1.60/0.20