Città di Varesevs
Pro Patria
COMPLETEDItaly · Coppa Italia Serie D · 10/7/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Pro Patria · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Città di Varese 2-5 Pro Patria
Original prediction
Pro Patria
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.95 | 22.7% | 34.0% | 11.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.12 | 28.7% | 29.3% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.84 | 48.6% | 36.8% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.84 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Pro Patria
Probability
36.8%
Model confidence
36.8%
Pro Patria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80