Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Leixoes · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cinfães 0-4 Leixoes
Original prediction
Leixoes
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 20:41 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 6.10 | 14.7% | 36.9% | 22.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.96 | 22.7% | 24.7% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.44 | 62.5% | 38.3% | -24.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.44 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Leixoes
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Leixoes has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CinfãesLDWWD
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
LeixoesDWWLW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CinfãesLeixoes
83.3Attack33.3
41.7Defence83.3
75.0Form66.7
67.7Power64.8
2.02xG1.45