GGOALVIO

Mexico · Liga de Expansión MX · 4/3/2024, 1:05:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

CA La Paz · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Cimarrones are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (WLDDL), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded, while CA La Paz are 2W-2D-1L in their last 5 (WWDLD), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.80 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and CA La Paz hold a 6.4-point power-rating edge (51.4 v 57.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 36.9% in the Liga de Expansión MX, while CA La Paz holds the strongest overall chance at 37% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 65% BTTS chance and 62% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

CA La Paz

Probability

36.9%

Model confidence

36.9%

CA La Paz has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

CimarronesWLDDL

GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CA La PazWWDLD

GF 9 · GA 9 · avg 1.80/1.80

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CimarronesCA La Paz
53.8Attack75.0
50.5Defence58.3
46.2Form50.0
51.4Power57.9
1.58xG1.65
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