Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cieza · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cieza 3-1 Intercity
Original prediction
Cieza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.4% | 42.8% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.07 | 29.6% | 29.2% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.36 | 27.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.10 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Cieza
Probability
42.8%
Model confidence
42.8%
Cieza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CiezaWDLWD
GF 7 · GA 3 · avg 1.40/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
IntercityDWDDW
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
CiezaIntercity
50.0Attack41.7
83.3Defence66.7
58.3Form50.0
62.9Power56.2
1.25xG0.87