Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cieza · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (10%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cieza 1-0 Elche II
Original prediction
Cieza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.97 | 46.2% | 40.0% | -6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.6% | 29.1% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 3.60 | 25.2% | 31.0% | 5.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.97 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Cieza
Probability
40.0%
Model confidence
40.0%
Cieza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CiezaDWWLL
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Elche IIDWLLW
GF 4 · GA 4 · avg 0.80/0.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 0/5
CiezaElche II
50.0Attack50.0
50.0Defence50.0
50.0Form50.0
50.0Power50.0
1.33xG1.13