Ciervosvs
Halcones Negros
COMPLETEDMexico · Liga Premier Serie A · 10/3/2026, 9:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Halcones Negros · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 0-3 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ciervos 0-5 Halcones Negros
Original prediction
Halcones Negros
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.04 | 22.5% | 20.1% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.7% | 22.8% | -0.9 pts |
| Away | 1.69 | 53.8% | 57.1% | 3.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.69 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.0–310%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Halcones Negros
Probability
57.1%
Model confidence
57.1%
Halcones Negros has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 14 · avg 0.60/2.80
GF 12 · GA 4 · avg 2.40/0.80