Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cienciano · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cienciano 1-2 Cusco
Original prediction
Cienciano
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.10 | 43.9% | 49.2% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.8% | 22.8% | -4.0 pts |
| Away | 3.15 | 29.3% | 28.0% | -1.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–08%
Predicted outcome
Cienciano
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Cienciano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CiencianoLLDWL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
CuscoLWLWL
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CiencianoCusco
55.1Attack49.3
52.2Defence49.3
53.6Form52.2
54.5Power51.0
1.81xG1.28