Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cienciano · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 1-1
Cienciano are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LDWLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Bolívar are 4W-0D-1L in their last 5 (WWWLW), averaging 2.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 4 of those 10 games and 5 passed 2.5 goals, and Bolívar hold a 16.5-point power-rating edge (54.2 v 70.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 40.4% in the CONMEBOL Sudamericana, while Cienciano holds the strongest overall chance at 40% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 48% BTTS chance and 41% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Cienciano
Probability
40.4%
Model confidence
40.4%
Cienciano has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 6 · avg 1.20/1.20
GF 12 · GA 3 · avg 2.40/0.60