Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Cibao · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Cibao 2-0 Jarabacoa, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Cibao 3-0 Jarabacoa
Original prediction
Cibao
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 31 August 2026 at 20:36 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.14 | 78.3% | 69.2% | -9.1 pts |
| Draw | 6.00 | 14.8% | 19.5% | 4.6 pts |
| Away | 13.04 | 6.8% | 11.3% | 4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.1 pts
Projected Score
Cibao 2–0 Jarabacoa
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Cibao
Probability
69.2%
Model confidence
69.2%
Cibao has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CibaoDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 2/5
JarabacoaLLLLL
GF 1 · GA 11 · avg 0.20/2.20
BTTS 1/5O2.5 2/5
CibaoJarabacoa
47.6Attack14.3
71.4Defence38.1
52.4Form14.3
57.9Power25.5
1.92xG0.54