Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-0
Cianorte are 1W-1D-3L in their last 5 (LWLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.20 conceded, while Joinville are 2W-1D-2L in their last 5 (DWLWL), averaging 0.80 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 3 passed 2.5 goals, and Joinville hold a 3.5-point power-rating edge (50.6 v 54.2). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 51.5% in the Serie D, while a draw holds the strongest overall chance at 52% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 19% BTTS chance and 10% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60