Churchill Brothersvs
Mumbai City
COMPLETEDIndia · Indian Super League · 10/11/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mumbai City · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Churchill Brothers 2-1 Mumbai City
Original prediction
Mumbai City
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 2 October 2026 at 12:43 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.40 | 26.9% | 35.4% | 8.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.42 | 26.7% | 28.1% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 1.97 | 46.4% | 36.4% | -10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Mumbai City
Probability
36.4%
Model confidence
36.4%
Mumbai City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 1 · avg 4.00/1.00
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00