Chorleyvs
Worcester City
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chorley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chorley 1-1 Worcester City
Original prediction
Chorley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.54 | 58.9% | 45.5% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.93 | 23.1% | 25.6% | 2.5 pts |
| Away | 5.01 | 18.1% | 28.9% | 10.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.93 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chorley
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Chorley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChorleyWWWWL
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Worcester CityLLWDL
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ChorleyWorcester City
83.3Attack58.3
83.3Defence75.0
100.0Form83.3
89.7Power75.3
1.73xG1.41