Chorleyvs
Darlington 1883
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 9/8/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chorley · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chorley 5-2 Darlington 1883
Original prediction
Chorley
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.15 | 42.2% | 45.8% | 3.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.3% | 24.9% | -1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.88 | 31.6% | 29.3% | -2.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.15 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Chorley
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Chorley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80