Chorleyvs
Brackley Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chorley · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chorley 2-2 Brackley Town
Original prediction
Chorley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.04 | 44.4% | 45.8% | 1.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.9% | 27.5% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.27 | 27.7% | 26.7% | -1.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Chorley
Probability
45.8%
Model confidence
45.8%
Chorley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20