Chorleyvs
AFC Telford United
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chorley · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-0 (13%), 2-0 (12%), 1-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chorley 2-1 AFC Telford United
Original prediction
Chorley
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.37 | 38.3% | 56.1% | 17.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 26.0% | 22.8% | -3.2 pts |
| Away | 2.55 | 35.7% | 21.1% | -14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.37 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–013%
- 2.2–012%
- 3.1–112%
Predicted outcome
Chorley
Probability
56.1%
Model confidence
56.1%
Chorley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20
GF 5 · GA 12 · avg 1.00/2.40