Chongqing Tongliang Longvs
Shanghai Shenhua
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 9/6/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shanghai Shenhua · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-3 Shanghai Shenhua
Original prediction
Shanghai Shenhua
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.26 | 28.5% | 33.8% | 5.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.8% | 25.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.03 | 45.7% | 41.0% | -4.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Shanghai Shenhua
Probability
41.0%
Model confidence
41.0%
Shanghai Shenhua has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 6 · avg 0.60/1.20
GF 11 · GA 12 · avg 2.20/2.40