Chongqing Tongliang Longvs
Shandong Luneng
COMPLETEDChina · Super League · 10/11/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Shandong Luneng · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chongqing Tongliang Long 1-1 Shandong Luneng
Original prediction
Shandong Luneng
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 37.3% | 34.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.45 | 27.0% | 26.7% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.60 | 35.8% | 38.9% | 3.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.45 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
Shandong Luneng
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Shandong Luneng has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
GF 7 · GA 9 · avg 1.40/1.80