Super League
Chongqing Tongliang Long
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Hangzhou Greentown
AwayThe model projects 1.42 xG for Chongqing Tongliang Long and 1.07 xG for Hangzhou Greentown. Hangzhou Greentown's projected xG of 1.07 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 1-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. With only 1 goal expected in total, the match is projected to be a tight, low-scoring affair where one goal may be enough to decide the contest.Chongqing Tongliang Long's defensive record — 5 clean sheets in 10 matches — combined with Hangzhou Greentown's limited attacking output (1 clean sheets conceded in 10 games) supports the model's projection of at least one side keeping a clean sheet.
The model projects a combined xG of 2.49 — moderate attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 1-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. Only 1 goal is expected in the most likely outcome — the model sees this as a tight, low-scoring contest where one goal could be decisive.
Momentum trend
last 5 matchesChongqing Tongliang LongHangzhou GreentownProbability breakdown
Chongqing Tongliang Long leads with 44% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.
Chongqing Tongliang Long Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1
Chongqing Tongliang Long host Hangzhou Greentown in Super League. Chongqing Tongliang Long have recorded WLDDWL in recent matches while Hangzhou Greentown arrive with a run of WLLWDW. These sides have met 2 times recently, averaging 1.5 goals per game.
Key factors
Why GoalVio backs this
Chongqing Tongliang Long have a structural home advantage that the model quantifies directly. Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams — empirically derived from home sides scoring 10–15% more goals on their own ground. The Elo model gives Chongqing Tongliang Long a 58% expected score in this fixture. When the underlying metrics are otherwise close, home advantage is often the decisive tipping factor.
Biggest risk: The xG gap between these sides is narrow — a small swing in form, a set-piece goal, or a tactical adjustment could flip the result. The model favours Chongqing Tongliang Long, but this is not a fixture where the outcome is a foregone conclusion. If Hangzhou Greentown score first, the game becomes genuinely open.
Risk factors
- ⚠Hangzhou Greentown are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
- ⚠The xG gap is narrow at 0.34 — a small swing in form or tactics could flip the result.
- ⚠Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
Recent form
Chongqing Tongliang Long
Hangzhou Greentown
Frequently asked questions
Who will win Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
GoalVio's model predicts Chongqing Tongliang Long to win with 44% confidence.
What is the predicted score for Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.
Will both teams score in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.
Will there be over 2.5 goals in Chongqing Tongliang Long vs Hangzhou Greentown?
GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.