Chonburi FCvs
Buriram United
COMPLETEDThailand · Thai League 1 · 9/20/2026, 11:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Buriram United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chonburi FC 0-1 Buriram United
Original prediction
Buriram United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.32 | 16.9% | 26.4% | 9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.77 | 23.8% | 26.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.51 | 59.4% | 47.5% | -11.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-11.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–19%
Predicted outcome
Buriram United
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Buriram United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80