Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chisola · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chisola 4-2 Derthona
Original prediction
Chisola
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 October 2026 at 02:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.14 | 41.5% | 35.9% | -5.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.15 | 28.2% | 28.7% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.3% | 35.3% | 5.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.14 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Chisola
Probability
35.9%
Model confidence
35.9%
Chisola has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChisolaLLWLW
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
DerthonaLDWLW
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ChisolaDerthona
33.3Attack50.0
33.3Defence50.0
0.0Form50.0
23.7Power50.0
1.28xG1.40