Chippenham Townvs
Yate Town
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chippenham Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chippenham Town 2-1 Yate Town
Original prediction
Chippenham Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 21 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.9% | 38.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.3% | 26.7% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 2.46 | 36.9% | 34.8% | -2.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.40 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Chippenham Town
Probability
38.5%
Model confidence
38.5%
Chippenham Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60