Chippenham Townvs
Poole Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Poole Town · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chippenham Town 1-4 Poole Town
Original prediction
Poole Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.60 | 25.1% | 18.9% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.8% | 22.1% | -3.7 pts |
| Away | 1.85 | 49.1% | 59.0% | 9.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.85 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
9.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–111%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Poole Town
Probability
59.0%
Model confidence
59.0%
Poole Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 11 · avg 0.80/2.20
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60