Chippa Unitedvs
Mamelodi Sundowns
COMPLETEDSouth-Africa · Premier Soccer League · 9/12/2026, 3:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Mamelodi Sundowns · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Chippa United 0-1 Mamelodi Sundowns, with an exact score probability of 18%.
Prediction record
Final result
Chippa United 1-1 Mamelodi Sundowns
Original prediction
Mamelodi Sundowns
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:10 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 9.22 | 9.9% | 17.4% | 7.5 pts |
| Draw | 4.62 | 19.7% | 25.3% | 5.6 pts |
| Away | 1.29 | 70.5% | 57.3% | -13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 3.62 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.2 pts
Projected Score
Chippa United 0–1 Mamelodi Sundowns
Exact score probability: 18%
Predicted outcome
Mamelodi Sundowns
Probability
57.3%
Model confidence
57.3%
Mamelodi Sundowns has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 5 · avg 0.40/1.00
GF 15 · GA 5 · avg 3.00/1.00