Chindia Targovistevs
Petrolul Ploiesti
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies Clubs · 10/3/2026, 8:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Petrolul Ploiesti · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chindia Targoviste 1-0 Petrolul Ploiesti
Original prediction
Petrolul Ploiesti
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 09:25 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.19 | 28.3% | 30.2% | 1.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.79 | 23.8% | 26.1% | 2.3 pts |
| Away | 1.89 | 47.8% | 43.6% | -4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Petrolul Ploiesti
Probability
43.6%
Model confidence
43.6%
Petrolul Ploiesti has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 5 · avg 2.00/1.00
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00