Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
China W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), 1-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
China W 1-0 Vietnam W
Original prediction
China W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 25 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.03 | 90.0% | 57.6% | -32.4 pts |
| Draw | 11.33 | 8.2% | 21.9% | 13.7 pts |
| Away | 51.67 | 1.8% | 20.6% | 18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.03 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-32.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.1–17%
Predicted outcome
China W
Probability
57.6%
Model confidence
57.6%
China W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
China WWDWWL
GF 14 · GA 4 · avg 2.80/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Vietnam WDLLLL
GF 2 · GA 13 · avg 0.40/2.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
China WVietnam W
100.0Attack16.7
66.7Defence66.7
77.8Form16.7
79.0Power36.5
2.74xG1.32