Chinavs
Tajikistan
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 10/6/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
China · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
China 0-1 Tajikistan
Original prediction
China
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.71 | 54.0% | 40.3% | -13.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 25.7% | 26.9% | 1.2 pts |
| Away | 4.55 | 20.3% | 32.9% | 12.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
China
Probability
40.3%
Model confidence
40.3%
China has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChinaLLWDW
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 1/5O2.5 4/5
TajikistanLLDWW
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ChinaTajikistan
38.9Attack50.0
38.9Defence41.7
44.4Form33.3
42.0Power43.3
1.44xG1.49