Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
China · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (9%), 0-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
China 0-5 Palestine
Original prediction
China
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.52 | 36.6% | 37.4% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 27.2% | 28.0% | 0.9 pts |
| Away | 2.54 | 36.3% | 34.6% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–09%
- 3.0–09%
Predicted outcome
China
Probability
37.4%
Model confidence
37.4%
China has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChinaLWDWD
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
PalestineDWDDD
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
ChinaPalestine
46.7Attack53.3
60.0Defence60.0
53.3Form46.7
54.1Power55.4
1.35xG1.22