Chinavs
New Zealand
COMPLETEDWorld · Friendlies · 9/27/2026, 11:35:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
China · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (12%), 1-0 (11%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
China 0-3 New Zealand
Original prediction
China
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 September 2026 at 15:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.35 | 27.6% | 48.5% | 20.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.22 | 28.7% | 25.2% | -3.6 pts |
| Away | 2.12 | 43.6% | 26.3% | -17.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
20.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–012%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
China
Probability
48.5%
Model confidence
48.5%
China has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChinaWDWDL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
New ZealandDLLLL
GF 3 · GA 11 · avg 0.60/2.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ChinaNew Zealand
58.3Attack22.2
75.0Defence22.2
66.7Form11.1
67.6Power22.2
2.18xG0.79