Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
China · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-0 (15%), 1-1 (15%), 1-0 (14%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
China 3-0 Maldives
Original prediction
China
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 19 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.02 | 94.2% | 52.2% | -42.0 pts |
| Draw | 23.92 | 4.0% | 23.9% | 19.9 pts |
| Away | 54.33 | 1.8% | 23.9% | 22.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.02 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-42.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–015%
- 2.1–115%
- 3.1–014%
Predicted outcome
China
Probability
52.2%
Model confidence
52.2%
China has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChinaDWDLL
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MaldivesDLLDW
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
ChinaMaldives
40.7Attack33.3
70.4Defence100.0
40.7Form100.0
50.4Power80.3
1.11xG0.89