China PR U23vs
Thailand U23
COMPLETEDWorld · Asian Games · 9/26/2026, 6:00:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
China PR U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
China PR U23 3-0 Thailand U23
Original prediction
China PR U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.89 | 49.0% | 39.3% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.40 | 27.2% | 26.8% | -0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.88 | 23.8% | 33.9% | 10.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.89 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
China PR U23
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
China PR U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 1 · avg 1.20/0.20
GF 12 · GA 14 · avg 2.40/2.80