Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Santa Fe · BTTS No · Under 2.5 · 0-2
Chico are 0W-1D-4L in their last 5 (DLLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 2.00 conceded, while Santa Fe are 0W-4D-1L in their last 5 (DDDLD), averaging 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Santa Fe hold a 25.7-point power-rating edge (30.2 v 55.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 16.3% in the Primera A, while Santa Fe holds the strongest overall chance at 70% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 36% BTTS chance and 44% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Santa Fe
Probability
70.4%
Model confidence
16.3%
Santa Fe has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 2 · GA 10 · avg 0.40/2.00
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40