Chichester Cityvs
Plymouth Parkway
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Plymouth Parkway · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (9%), 1-2 (9%), 0-3 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chichester City 3-1 Plymouth Parkway
Original prediction
Plymouth Parkway
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.56 | 35.3% | 22.0% | -13.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.50 | 25.9% | 21.5% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.34 | 38.8% | 56.5% | 17.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
17.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–29%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–39%
Predicted outcome
Plymouth Parkway
Probability
56.5%
Model confidence
56.5%
Plymouth Parkway has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 13 · avg 1.40/2.60
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00