Chichester Cityvs
Chertsey Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 9/22/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chertsey Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-2 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chichester City 2-2 Chertsey Town
Original prediction
Chertsey Town
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 8 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.82 | 31.8% | 29.4% | -2.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.80 | 23.6% | 21.7% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 44.6% | 48.9% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.80 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.3 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–29%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Chertsey Town
Probability
48.9%
Model confidence
48.9%
Chertsey Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20
GF 12 · GA 8 · avg 2.40/1.60