GGOALVIO

USA · NWSL Women · 5/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Portland Thorns W · BTTS No · Over 2.5 · 0-2

Mediumconfidence

Chicago Red Stars W are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.60 conceded, while Portland Thorns W are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WWDWL), averaging 1.80 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Portland Thorns W hold a 24.8-point power-rating edge (29.8 v 54.6). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 0-2 the most likely exact scoreline at 12.9% in the NWSL Women, while Portland Thorns W holds the strongest overall chance at 64% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 47% BTTS chance and 51% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Portland Thorns W

Probability

64.4%

Model confidence

12.9%

Portland Thorns W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chicago Red Stars WLWLLL

GF 2 · GA 8 · avg 0.40/1.60

BTTS 0/5O2.5 1/5
Portland Thorns WWWDWL

GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20

BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Chicago Red Stars WPortland Thorns W
15.8Attack56.1
40.4Defence50.9
22.8Form54.4
29.8Power54.6
0.76xG1.97
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