GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 3/15/2026, 12:30:00 AM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Highconfidence

Chicago Fire are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while DC United are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 48.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.1% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

58.1%

Model confidence

58.1%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chicago FireDWLLD

GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20

BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
DC UnitedLLWDD

GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
Chicago FireDC United
62.7Attack48.1
54.9Defence46.3
56.9Form42.6
58.6Power48.0
2.26xG1.16
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