Chicago Firevs
DC United
COMPLETEDUSA · Major League Soccer · 3/15/2026, 12:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1
Chicago Fire are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLLD), averaging 1.40 scored and 1.20 conceded, while DC United are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLWDD), averaging 0.40 scored and 0.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 10.5-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 48.0). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 58.1% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 58% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 65% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Chicago Fire
Probability
58.1%
Model confidence
58.1%
Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.40/0.60