GGOALVIO

USA · Major League Soccer · 2/28/2026, 7:30:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chicago Fire · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 2-1

Lowconfidence

Chicago Fire are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LLDDW), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.00 conceded, while CF Montreal are 2W-0D-3L in their last 5 (LLWWL), averaging 1.60 scored and 2.60 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 8 passed 2.5 goals, and Chicago Fire hold a 20.8-point power-rating edge (58.6 v 37.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 2-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 9.4% in the Major League Soccer, while Chicago Fire holds the strongest overall chance at 72% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 61% BTTS chance and 72% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chicago Fire

Probability

71.6%

Model confidence

9.4%

Chicago Fire has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

Chicago FireLLDDW

GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00

BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CF MontrealLLWWL

GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60

BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Chicago FireCF Montreal
62.7Attack44.4
54.9Defence35.2
56.9Form29.6
58.6Power37.8
2.81xG1.04
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