GGOALVIO

England · National League · 8/5/2023, 2:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chesterfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 3-0

Highconfidence

Chesterfield are 1W-0D-4L in their last 5 (LWLLL), averaging 0.80 scored and 1.80 conceded, while Dorking Wanderers are 2W-3D-0L in their last 5 (DDDWW), averaging 2.40 scored and 2.00 conceded. Both teams scored in 7 of those 10 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and Chesterfield hold a 28.8-point power-rating edge (67.6 v 38.8). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 3-0 the most likely exact scoreline at 78.5% in the National League, while Chesterfield holds the strongest overall chance at 79% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 59% BTTS chance and 77% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chesterfield

Probability

78.5%

Model confidence

78.5%

Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ChesterfieldLWLLL

GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80

BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Dorking WanderersDDDWW

GF 12 · GA 10 · avg 2.40/2.00

BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ChesterfieldDorking Wanderers
76.8Attack39.1
52.9Defence38.4
71.0Form32.6
67.6Power38.8
3.35xG0.94
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