GGOALVIO

England · EFL Trophy · 10/7/2025, 6:00:00 PM

Unified score-distribution model

Prediction markets

Chesterfield · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1

Highconfidence

Chesterfield are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (LWDDL), averaging 1.80 scored and 2.20 conceded, while Burton Albion are 1W-2D-2L in their last 5 (DWLDL), averaging 0.40 scored and 1.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 5 of those 10 games and 4 passed 2.5 goals, and Chesterfield hold an 8.4-point power-rating edge (68.4 v 59.9). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 45.0% in the EFL Trophy, while Chesterfield holds the strongest overall chance at 45% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 62% BTTS chance and 60% for over 2.5 goals.

Predicted outcome

Chesterfield

Probability

45.0%

Model confidence

45.0%

Chesterfield has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.

Last 5 games

ChesterfieldLWDDL

GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20

BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Burton AlbionDWLDL

GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20

BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
ChesterfieldBurton Albion
53.3Attack60.0
66.7Defence53.3
73.3Form60.0
68.4Power59.9
1.80xG1.34
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