Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Chester 1-0 Morecambe, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Chester 0-1 Morecambe
Original prediction
Chester
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.68 | 53.8% | 52.9% | -0.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.2% | 25.9% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 4.14 | 21.9% | 21.2% | -0.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.9 pts
Projected Score
Chester 1–0 Morecambe
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Chester
Probability
52.9%
Model confidence
52.9%
Chester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChesterDWWWW
GF 7 · GA 2 · avg 1.40/0.40
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
MorecambeWLLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
ChesterMorecambe
46.7Attack26.7
86.7Defence60.0
86.7Form26.7
76.7Power40.7
1.50xG0.69