Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5 · 1-1
13%
MediumconfidenceChester are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (WLDWW), averaging 1.20 scored and 0.80 conceded, while Morecambe are 0W-2D-3L in their last 5 (DLLLD), averaging 0.80 scored and 3.20 conceded. Both teams scored in 6 of those 10 games and 7 passed 2.5 goals, and Chester hold a 35.0-point power-rating edge (80.3 v 45.3). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely result in the National League - North, favouring a draw with 13.1% confidence, a 52% BTTS chance and 49% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
27.5%
Model confidence
13.1%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChesterWLDWW
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
MorecambeDLLLD
GF 4 · GA 16 · avg 0.80/3.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ChesterMorecambe
66.7Attack33.3
66.7Defence66.7
100.0Form33.3
80.3Power45.3
1.60xG1.03