Chestervs
Bedford Town
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - North · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chester · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Chester 1-0 Bedford Town, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Chester 1-0 Bedford Town
Original prediction
Chester
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 58.8% | 53.5% | -5.3 pts |
| Draw | 4.01 | 22.7% | 25.7% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 4.93 | 18.5% | 20.8% | 2.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.4 pts
Projected Score
Chester 1–0 Bedford Town
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Chester
Probability
53.5%
Model confidence
53.5%
Chester has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ChesterLWWLL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Bedford TownWDDWL
GF 9 · GA 7 · avg 1.80/1.40
BTTS 5/5O2.5 4/5
ChesterBedford Town
43.3Attack46.7
70.0Defence53.3
56.7Form53.3
58.1Power53.5
1.32xG0.76