Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aveley · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Cheshunt 2-1 Aveley
Original prediction
Aveley
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 22 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.50 | 25.8% | 29.5% | 3.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.72 | 24.3% | 26.3% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.81 | 49.9% | 44.3% | -5.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Aveley
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Aveley has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
CheshuntDWLLL
GF 6 · GA 11 · avg 1.20/2.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AveleyLWLLL
GF 9 · GA 12 · avg 1.80/2.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
CheshuntAveley
25.9Attack59.3
55.6Defence40.7
29.6Form37.0
39.4Power46.0
1.15xG1.50