Chesham Unitedvs
Real Bedford
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/3/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesham United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 1-2 (8%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesham United 4-3 Real Bedford
Original prediction
Chesham United
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 24 September 2026 at 00:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.5% | 37.8% | -7.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.83 | 23.6% | 27.1% | 3.5 pts |
| Away | 2.94 | 30.9% | 35.0% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.1–28%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Chesham United
Probability
37.8%
Model confidence
37.8%
Chesham United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 13 · GA 12 · avg 2.60/2.40
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60