Chesham Unitedvs
Forest Green
COMPLETEDEngland · FA Cup · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesham United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesham United 0-0 Forest Green
Original prediction
Chesham United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 20:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.90 | 23.3% | 38.3% | 15.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.86 | 23.5% | 25.5% | 2.0 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 53.2% | 36.2% | -16.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.86 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Chesham United
Probability
38.3%
Model confidence
38.3%
Chesham United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 15 · GA 15 · avg 3.00/3.00
GF 8 · GA 12 · avg 1.60/2.40