Chesham Unitedvs
Dover
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 8/31/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chesham United · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesham United 2-2 Dover
Original prediction
Chesham United
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.56 | 58.3% | 47.5% | -10.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.99 | 22.8% | 23.3% | 0.5 pts |
| Away | 4.81 | 18.9% | 29.2% | 10.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.99 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-10.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–27%
Predicted outcome
Chesham United
Probability
47.5%
Model confidence
47.5%
Chesham United has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
GF 11 · GA 11 · avg 2.20/2.20