Chesham Unitedvs
Chelmsford City
COMPLETEDEngland · National League - South · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chelmsford City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chesham United 0-5 Chelmsford City
Original prediction
Chelmsford City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 September 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.28 | 39.9% | 34.5% | -5.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.63 | 25.0% | 29.2% | 4.2 pts |
| Away | 2.58 | 35.1% | 36.3% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.58 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Chelmsford City
Probability
36.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Chelmsford City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 16 · GA 12 · avg 3.20/2.40
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80