Chertsey Townvs
Evesham United
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/20/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chertsey Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (8%), 3-1 (8%), 2-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chertsey Town 2-0 Evesham United
Original prediction
Chertsey Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 6 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.51 | 60.2% | 62.8% | 2.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.3% | 17.5% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 4.66 | 19.5% | 19.7% | 0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.51 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–18%
- 2.3–18%
- 3.2–26%
Predicted outcome
Chertsey Town
Probability
62.8%
Model confidence
62.8%
Chertsey Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 4 · GA 10 · avg 0.80/2.00