Chertanovo Moscowvs
FK Neftekhimik
COMPLETEDRussia · Cup · 9/9/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chertanovo Moscow · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Chertanovo Moscow 1-1 FK Neftekhimik
Original prediction
Chertanovo Moscow
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.43 | 20.7% | 36.6% | 16.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.0% | 26.9% | 2.8 pts |
| Away | 1.65 | 55.3% | 36.5% | -18.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.81 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Chertanovo Moscow
Probability
36.6%
Model confidence
36.6%
Chertanovo Moscow has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 3 · avg 2.80/0.60
GF 4 · GA 5 · avg 0.80/1.00