Chernomorets 1919 Burgasvs
Spartak Pleven
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/13/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1-0 Spartak Pleven, with an exact score probability of 16%.
Prediction record
Final result
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 3-0 Spartak Pleven
Original prediction
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:09 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.48 | 60.6% | 51.2% | -9.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.74 | 24.0% | 27.0% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 5.83 | 15.4% | 21.8% | 6.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.48 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.4 pts
Projected Score
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas 1–0 Spartak Pleven
Exact score probability: 16%
Predicted outcome
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Probability
51.2%
Model confidence
51.2%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80
GF 4 · GA 13 · avg 0.80/2.60